The concept of big models has been on fire for two years now, before various media outlets bragged about the emergence of big models as something like "steam engine era”、“iPhone Moments"Wait a minute. So why didn't any of the results we were expecting show up? Let's review the history together.
1. The Age of the Steam Engine
1.1 History of the Steam Engine
Many people are discussing the big model era seems to be just a concept in the fire, but there are no cases of actual landing. The current application is in the field of text generation, image generation, speech recognition, knowledge base, etc., painless, as if there is still a big gap from the people's expectations, always feel less than the age of the steam engine change so big.
As a matter of fact, the earliest steam engine was not invented by Watt, nor did it catch fire as soon as it came out. The history of the steam engine can be divided into several important stages, including invention, improvement and widespread application. A brief history is as follows:
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invention stage：
- In 1698, Thomas Cervelli invented the first practical steam engine for pumping water.
- In 1712, Thomas Newcomen improved the steam engine and invented the atmospheric steam engine.
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improvement phase：
- In 1765, Watt made a major improvement to the Newcomen steam engine by inventing the separating condenser, which greatly increased the efficiency of the steam engine.
- In 1776, Watt teamed up with Matthew Bolton to begin production of an improved steam engine.
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Extension of the application phase：
- In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, as the Industrial Revolution progressed, the Watt steam engine was widely used in mining, manufacturing, and transportation (e.g., trains and ships).
It took about 78 years from the invention of the first practical steam engine by Thomas Cervelli to James Watt's improvement of the steam engine and the beginning of its widespread use.
1.2. Steam engines were popularized
The reason why the steam engine was widely popularized is even more inseparable from commerce. To put it bluntly, it could not be separated from the factory owners of those years, who were racking their brains to use the steam engine technology in their own industries, to enhance the industrial effect and realize more considerable profits.
2. iPhone Moments
The whole phase of the steam engine went through years, but the iPhone didn't go through so many years yikes!
From 2006 when Apple started messing around with the iphone to 2010 when the iPhone 4 was released and rolled out, it only took 4 years. But it's been 2 years since the big model appeared, how come nothing has happened yet?
In fact, long before the iPhone appeared, smart phones have been developed since 1992, there have been big manufacturers in the development of smart phones, such as: Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry, Google and so on. Only the iPhone did a better human-computer interaction, and coincided with the explosion of the mobile Internet, so there is the "iPhone moment".
From the beginning of the development of smartphones to the "iPhone moment", it took about 16 years.
3. Summarize the reasons
After reading the two little histories above, I've summarized the reasons why there are no breakout apps for the big models.
3.1. Perspective bias
Whether it's the "age of the steam engine" or the "iPhone moment", they have both gone through a long process of development. From our current perspective, it seems as if all those things happened in a flash, which is due to the fact that we are not looking at the issue from an objective point of view.
3.2. Somatic bias
The first few technological innovations were groundbreaking and created many industries. For example, the "age of the steam engine" triggered the industrial revolution, and the entire industrial industry was able to develop. The "iPhone moment" triggered the mobile Internet industry, which instantly interconnected the world.
People are most physically aware of the emergence of industry because they are in it and are part of the change. For example, in the Industrial Revolution, many workers were working in factories operating machines, building railroads, and digging mines. The Internet revolution, for example, where everyone used the latest cell phones, and all kinds of apps proliferated, bringing convenience to every aspect of life.
These industries were started so that everyone could feel the power of technology. But in the present time, it has been difficult for new industries to emerge globally, and without new industries, even with the best technology, people's experience is not strong.
3.3. Big models are just empowering
Big Models are there to empower industries and make them better, not to create them. Big models are acting as a good assistant to people, and are not going to replace people. The world is still dominated by people, and it is only when people go and create industries that we get a new sense of physicality.
Big models are also a combination of hardware and software, just like computers and programming languages, the technology behind an industry. At the end of the day, it may even be as silent as water, electricity, and air, and is rarely even mentioned. In the future, even if the big models undergo radical changes, we may not have a direct sense of the body.
Big models still have a long way to go, but we should give them some time and confidence, as history goes!!!!
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